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Product Management Guesstimate Question: Estimating total Uber rides globally using market sizing techniques

Asked at Uber

12 mins

Estimate the Total number of Uber Rides

Guesstimates Medium Member-only
Quantitative Analysis Market Estimation Assumption Validation Transportation Technology Gig Economy
Data Analysis Product Metrics Ride-Sharing Market Sizing Guesstimates

Clarify the Question

  • Looking at this estimation challenge, it seems we're dealing with a product usage estimation focusing on total ride volume. Would you agree that we're aiming to estimate the total number of Uber rides globally on an annual basis?

Why it matters: Defines the scope and timeframe for our calculation. Expected answer: Yes, global annual rides. Impact on approach: Will need to consider different markets and seasonality.

  • Considering Uber's global presence, should we focus on key markets or attempt a truly global estimate?

Why it matters: Affects the granularity and complexity of our calculation. Expected answer: Focus on key markets and extrapolate. Impact on approach: Will use a segmented approach for major markets.

  • Given Uber's diverse service offerings (UberX, Pool, Black, etc.), should we include all ride types or focus on a specific segment?

Why it matters: Influences the average metrics we'll use for calculations. Expected answer: Include all ride types for a comprehensive estimate. Impact on approach: Will need to consider a weighted average of different services.

  • Are we considering only completed rides, or should we factor in cancellations as well?

Why it matters: Affects the definition of "ride" and potential inflation of numbers. Expected answer: Focus on completed rides only. Impact on approach: Will need to factor in a completion rate in our calculations.

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