What's causing the sudden 30% increase in failed payment transactions for KoinWorks' KoinBisnis merchants?

Introduction

The sudden 30% increase in failed payment transactions for KoinWorks' KoinBisnis merchants is a critical issue that demands immediate attention. This analysis will systematically identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both short-term and long-term implications for the product and business.

I'll approach this problem by first clarifying the context, then ruling out external factors before diving deep into the product ecosystem, metric breakdown, and data analysis. From there, I'll form and validate hypotheses, conduct a root cause analysis, and propose a comprehensive resolution plan.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking this could be a recent change. When exactly did you first notice this 30% increase in failed transactions?

Why it matters: Pinpointing the timeframe helps narrow down potential causes and correlate with any recent changes. Expected answer: Within the last week or two. Impact on approach: A sudden spike suggests a specific trigger rather than a gradual trend.

• Considering the scale of the issue, I'm wondering about its consistency. Is this 30% increase uniform across all merchant types or are certain segments more affected?

Why it matters: Identifying patterns in affected merchants could reveal underlying causes. Expected answer: Varied impact across merchant segments. Impact on approach: Segmentation analysis would be prioritized if certain merchants are disproportionately affected.

• Given the nature of failed transactions, I'm curious about the error messages. What specific error codes or messages are being reported for these failed transactions?

Why it matters: Error codes can provide direct clues to technical issues. Expected answer: A mix of error codes, potentially with one or two dominating. Impact on approach: Focus on specific technical areas based on prevalent error codes.

• Thinking about recent changes, have there been any updates to the payment system, API integrations, or merchant onboarding process in the past month?

Why it matters: Recent changes often correlate with sudden performance shifts. Expected answer: Yes, a minor update to the payment gateway API. Impact on approach: Investigation would focus on the impact and rollout of this update.