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Pricing
Product Management Guesstimate Question: Estimating bicycle fleet size for a bike-sharing startup in a big city

Asked at Uber

8 mins

Estimate the number of bicycles required to start a bike-sharing operation in a big city.

Guesstimates Medium Member-only
Market Sizing Data Analysis Strategic Planning Transportation Smart Cities Sustainable Mobility
Urban Mobility Guesstimates Bike-Sharing Product Estimation Infrastructure Planning

Problem Categorization

This estimation falls under the Product/Usage Estimations category, specifically focusing on infrastructure needs for a bike-sharing operation in a big city.

Step 1

Clarify the Question

  • Looking at the context, are we focusing on a specific city or a generic "big city" model?

Why it matters: Affects population assumptions and infrastructure needs Expected answer: Generic big city model Impact on approach: Will use average values for urban populations

  • Considering the nature of bike-sharing, should we account for seasonal variations in demand?

Why it matters: Influences peak capacity needs and overall fleet size Expected answer: Yes, consider seasonal variations Impact on approach: Will estimate for peak season and adjust for off-peak

  • Given the urban setting, are we assuming a 24/7 operation or specific operating hours?

Why it matters: Affects distribution of demand and peak usage times Expected answer: 24/7 operation Impact on approach: Will consider varying demand throughout the day

  • In terms of coverage, are we aiming for full city coverage or focusing on high-density areas?

Why it matters: Impacts the number of bikes and stations needed Expected answer: Focus on high-density areas with expansion potential Impact on approach: Will estimate based on core urban area, not entire metropolitan region

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